New Bloc By China…?

 

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SAARC at Crossroads: China and Pakistan’s Move for a New Bloc and What It Means for South Asia:

By Dr Sunil Singh Rana:

The winds of change are blowing across South Asia. As someone who has closely followed the shifting power equations in our region, I find the recent reports about China and Pakistan eyeing a replacement for SAARC not just alarming, but deeply symbolic of the fractures in our regional vision. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), once seen as a hope for unity among neighbors, has been virtually inactive since 2014. Now, with China and Pakistan reportedly working to create a new bloc- with the possible inclusion of Bangladesh- the very foundation of South Asia’s strategic alignment is being challenged.

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What’s Happening?

According to credible international reports, high-level discussions have taken place in Kunming, China, between officials of Pakistan, China, and Bangladesh, aiming to craft a new regional alliance that excludes India. The idea is to create a platform for connectivity, trade, and strategic cooperation- essentially a SAARC alternative, but without what they see as “Indian hegemony.”

From my perspective, this is not just a reaction to India’s growing influence. It’s a calculated move- led by China’s global ambitions and Pakistan’s desperation to remain geopolitically relevant.

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A Look Back: SAARC’s Rise and Fall

I remember the enthusiasm when SAARC was formed in 1985. There was hope that South Asia- one of the most populous and complex regions- could work together for shared prosperity. But the dream dimmed as India–Pakistan tensions turned the platform into a hostage of bilateral politics.

• India tried to lead with vision, pushing for trade and anti-terror cooperation.
• Pakistan repeatedly blocked progress, using SAARC as a space to internationalize the Kashmir issue.
• And while smaller nations wanted neutrality, their voices were often drowned.

Eventually, India began focusing more on BIMSTEC- a more cooperative bloc that connects the Bay of Bengal region, minus Pakistan.

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Why China Is Interested

Let’s not be naive. China’s involvement in this new regional push isn’t about development alone.

• Through CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor) and BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), China has made deep inroads into Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and even Bangladesh.
• Beijing has been waiting to replace India as a regional power. This new bloc gives them that chance- a “minus-India” version of SAARC where they hold the remote control.
• It’s a part of their strategy to encircle India and control regional narratives, trade routes, and digital corridors.

If this new group emerges, China won’t just be an observer (like it is in SAARC)- it will be the driver.

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What Does It Mean for South Asia?

As someone who believes in regional cooperation, I’m concerned this move will:

1. Divide the region further: Instead of healing fractures, it’ll institutionalize them. South Asia will become two blocks- India-led (BIMSTEC/IMEC) vs China–Pakistan-led (New SAARC).
2. Corner smaller countries: Nations like Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan will face increasing pressure to choose sides- risking their sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
3. Threaten India’s leadership role: India, being the natural leader of South Asia in terms of size, economy, and influence, may now have to work harder to keep regional friends aligned.
4. Fuel economic and strategic insecurity: This is not just about trade; it’s about digital infrastructure, maritime control, defense cooperation, and influence in international forums.

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India’s Counter-Move?

I believe India will, and must, respond smartly-not with aggression but with inclusiveness and vision. Strengthening BIMSTEC, accelerating India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), and reaffirming its “Neighbourhood First” policy are crucial.

Let’s also be honest- India needs to show more commitment and consistency in its partnerships with smaller South Asian nations. Respect, not dominance, should be our mantra.

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Where Are We Headed?

If this new bloc becomes a reality, the next decade will redefine South Asian geopolitics. But I still have hope. History shows us that alliances built on opposition (like anti-India motives) rarely last long. What sustains regional partnerships is shared prosperity, peace, and respect for sovereignty.

SAARC might be broken today, but maybe this crisis will force the region to rethink- do we want power blocks or people-first cooperation?

India must lead- not just with strength, but with soul.

✒️ Final Words:

We’re witnessing a tectonic shift in our neighborhood. China and Pakistan’s plan to replace SAARC may seem tactical, but it poses long-term strategic risks. As an Indian, as a South Asian, I believe it’s time we reclaimed the true spirit of regional unity, and not let it be hijacked by power games.

Let’s watch this space closely. History is being rewritten- and this time, South Asia must write it wisely.